It is usually the tradition around here to update the snowmobiling page on the hottest day of the year. I’d reckon that was last week, but I am not sure. At any rate, snowmobiling has been on my mind lately and it is time for a visit.

First is a reminder that Hay Days is the weekend after Labor Day. That is in only a few weeks.

In the spring this year I kept waiting for a big wet spell at the end of the season, Feb and March. The theory was good, but the timing didn’t quite work out. April and May brought a D-3 and almost D-4 drought to the area, the peak of a 6 year spell. In early June the Menominee River was setting 93 year records for low flow, and we had something like 3.7″ of rainfall equivelent all year.

Then it came. Late June brought some rain, and July brought over a foot of rain. August kept it up, putting us probably over 20″ of rain in two months. It is interesting to think what that 20+ inches of rain would have brought in January & Feb if it were mostly snow. I’m guessing that as we closed on the 20′ mark even snowmobilers would say enough.

June through August brought La Nina conditions to the Pacific Ocean. La Nina is like El Nino, but the cold phase of it. The La Nina is expected to continue into 2011, making that one of the elements of the winter forecast. Virtually all of the models show a cold anomaly this winter.

I recall a winter a while back that I had huge hopes for because of a pending La Nina. It did not turn out to be the Utopian winter that I had hoped for. We know that El Nino is bad, so La Nina should be good, right? Hopefully. At the very least it is not El Nino.

If this summer is a snapshot of the winter, it will be an interesting ride. There have been warm and cold spells, and a lot of precip. Usually it has not been that cut and dried where that will translate directly to winter. If this one did, it would be quite a winter.

The other day I was on the Peshtigo River taking pictures of the whitewater rafters as usual. During a break I was looking at some small trees growing in a dry side channel of the river. Most were a little under an inch in diameter. I thought to myself, ya know, those shouldn’t be there. With the conditions there, if it was possible to survive, there would be 50 year old oak/cedar/white pine/basswood/hemlock trees there. If those get much bigger, they would actually stand a chance against the ice and water of the occasional high water flows.

At that point I concluded that they had to go. The only thing that would do that is a big meltwater flow in the spring. That would require a lot of snow this winter and some frost in the ground too. Between the whitewater photographer and the snowmobiler, I got kind of excited about it. It has been about 6 years since we had a really really big spring river, and we are certainly due.

One of my little proxies is paper wasp activity. Folklore suggests high nests mean high snow. Last year I was getting stung as I went across ground nests. Bad sign, bad winter. Some years they wer 20′ up in the trees, good sign, fair winter.

This year they just aren’t. There are no nests along the river, in my work shed, in the front yard, or along the road or driveway. They are present, I am just not sure where the nests are. It catches my attention that they aren’t in the usual places.

My best guess is that they might have built nests under the bark of dead trees. I have found old nests under peeling bark on some bigger oaks that I have cut for firewood. If that is indeed the case, I would associate that with a harsh winter strategy by the wasps. I guess I will know more when the temps cool off and I start cutting wood again. For now I will settle for knowing that the wasp proxy isn’t typical of what I have observed over the last decade or so.

I looked up the CPC long term outlook, and we are in the equal chances area for both temperature and precip for the winter. There was some above normal precip for the region southwest of us. That would hold some promise that we could see some of that moisture here.

Also worthy of mention, we seem to be into a cold phase PDO. The PDO is one of many climate oscillations. This one is based in the Pacific. Cold phase PDO would be associated with the period of 1963-1976. I was young in the first part, but I recall the second part being huge for snow. That is when the snowmobile industry boomed and we had literally hundreds of companies trying their hand at building a sled. I also remember the snow piles being huge. Sure I was a little kid, but I also recall the city workers having to dig out the stop signs because the snow banks were over them. It is also when my Dad bought our first sled, the 72 TnT 640.

Beyond those reasons comes the gut. I just have this feeling that I should already be ready for winter, and that I might want to pay attention to this one. It isn’t the usual optimistic preseason forecast, there is a little light belly thing too, like before you go on a scary ride or do public speaking. My instincts are strongly telling me that Mother Nature is about to issue us a right hook that we haven’t seen for a while.

I know that I am optimistic every fall. It is my nature to dive into it with the glass half full, and I (rightly) get a good bit of guff about it. This year I am very optimistic yet again, big surprise.

Maybe I just have myself whipped up into a funk as usual. Maybe not.  Something is very different this year.

I will be back as fall progresses.

Have a good one and thank you for visiting!

RJB

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I am moving to my spring and summer spot. I update just like I do here, and I have a pretty nifty new page. Please set your bookmarks to http://www.northerndestinations.com/scindex . I will have a new update coming overnight for your Monday morning reading

Thank you!

RJB.

Sunday 3-7- 3pm- Athelstane Weather is reporting 58.1. It is really nice out.

3-6

4:31pm- We are through the heat of the day. It was a nice one, 55.9F @ Athelstane, and plenty of sun. Yowza yowza yowza.

11am

Dan G updated with this..

Chute Pond trails will remain open this weekend, in poor condition with bare spots
and icy corners in the woods. We will close for the season at 7:00 am Monday, March
8th.

Thanks Dan!

March 5th, 2010

The next week of NWS forecasts have 40 somewhere in every day’s forecast. Some could go into the upper 40s like the next two days. The GFS has been relentless over the last 3-4 days continuing to push storms anywhere but here for it’s entire 16 day duration.

The fat lady sings clip below is funny stuff. It was exactly what I was looking for. Too bad they wouldn’t let me embed it. Without further adieu,  here it is.. the fat lady.

MixerKing is right, the trails might be done, but the world does not come to an end in these parts between seasons. As I have said many times over my decade here, this is a great time to escape. The businesses really appreciate your visit, and since they aren’t busy, your favorite places are running specials to compete for the people that are around. They also have time to hang out and chat, get to know you, and make friends. Busy weekends are great, but a lot of times you guys are on a mission to do X00 miles, and I have to keep running too.  At the end of the day I end up  wishing that I could have visited longer with some of you. Here we are.

I will be back next week. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

March 4th

Greetings and welcome!

Athelstane Weather had 47.3 & sunny yesterday, I saw the car go as high as 53. There is no hope of a big storm next week anymore, at least not according to the last 6 or 7 GFS runs.

Per Dan G’s request.. here it is.. the fat lady.

RJB

Brad, could you or your neighbor e-mail me

So much for a last ride… Yesterday I woke up a little later than expected, and it was already a mashed potatoes and light jacket day. The 44 & sunny day got the melting going pretty good and it was obviously no place for a warm blooded sled on one last ride. (Curses, foiled agagin) I ended up going for a walk.

What about the storms that we have been watching for weeks on the GFS? The last four GFS runs have shown them doing a variety of stuff, but none of it involves snow for us. Unless that changes we are very done for the year. There probably are still riding opportunities around here by trailering to that secluded pocket of sheltered snow or maybe on the lakes, but otherwise it is looking like the end. The forecast through the weekend is for more sun, more melting, and a good chance of picking up another 5-10 degrees late week and for the weekend.

Another sign that it is over is out on Craig’s list. Not only is my stuff not moving, there are deals out there that make me crazy. I wish that I had 10-20G to invest. There are some pretty silly prices as people try to offload winter gear. If you are looking for a super deal, it is now.

It was not a good winter for us, but it could have been worse. Like last year, I never saw a full foot of snow out of one storm. I had hopes that the various teleconnections like ENSO, the PDO, and the AO would line up our way and make El Nino Modoki better than a regular El Nino. Silly rabbit.  The arctic opened up and pushed all of the cold air to the deep south, and left us with a mild winter. I am not complaining about missing the -30 nights and a high of -5 for weeks, but even a couple of more snows would have made the predominant 25 degree days a delight.

It was crazy watching our storms go and snow on the deep south and east coast while we couldn’t buy a 3-6 inch storm. Silly thoughts turned to buying a snow shack where it does snow and starting a club. I was thinking that the Birmingham Yankee Drift Busters would be a good name, right up there with the Atlanta Trail-Cats, or Orlando Sno-Wizards.

A big project sucked up all of my time in November and December and left me way behind on my sleds when the snow did come. I eventually caught up, and am watching the meltwater run past three running sleds.

The new leadership of the River Road Riders surprised me and left me with a nifty crapped-on feeling when I was shown the door and replaced by someone charging thousands for what is worth hundreds, and I did for free, but they continue to have my support because I have so many friends in that club. The Bear Point Sno-Cruisers got off to a great start and has a promising future.

The best part of the winter was that we did have pretty many good weekends, and a lot of you got a lot of good miles in. It didn’t hurt that it started good in December. I am also very appreciative for all of the people that supported me here, came to visit at the Rapids, and sent in hard earned dollars to keep the wheels turning.

I am probably going to take a few days off other than watching the storm, then I have plans on coming back with a photo gallery of pictures from this year. Beyond that I will be moving back over to the Silvercliff site with my blogging after a little time off. All of this melting will eventually end up going to our various whitewater rivers, and hopefully the spring rafting brings a good season. Our watershed is up by Crandon, and they had a pretty normal year. With any storms at all hitting us, the river should roar.

I found my way to this area originally because of the whitewater, and it was such a nice area and set of rivers that I stayed. Now I do the pictures and videos at Kosirs. If you want to play in the snow one more time, spring rafting starts the first weekend in April.

Plans for next year involve mostly trying to do what I do here better. Health and finances willing, hopefully I will get to report on great trails and get in a lot of miles. Retirement is not in the plan or on the list. Current forecasts do NOT expect an El Nino next year, Modoki or otherwise. We shall see.

In the meantime, I will be back if the storms start coming our way again. It could still happen, but with the sunny and mid-40s over the next 4-5 days probably hitting 50 a time or three, maybe it is time to raise a toast our friends, thank you for a great season, and wish you health and prosperity in the days ahead. This Bud’s for you.

Thank you for visiting!

RJB

11PM- Going to do my overnight bit here to let the comments keep rolling.

In my travels today I saw some still sweet sun sheltered forest roads and some good enough trail. There is plenty of ugly too thanks to the sun. I decided that I was being a trail Nancy and that I should pay the price through the bad to find my way to some of that nice stuff for a last ride. Even if it is only 20 or 30 miles in trade for a bit of carbide & slide, I have to try. As much as anything it is to keep the end of season blues from kicking my butt. I had a real motivation problem today and hated every second of it. Now I am fighting back.

The weather this week looks bad with sun and highs in the 30s and 40s. Today is the first day of meteorological spring, though the equinox is not until the 20th.

The latest frame in our weather soap has two big storms after the weekend. This time they could both go either way. I am a little nervous about precip type since there isn’t a lot of really cold air to the north of the storms. There is still a chance of big snow out of one or both storms. They could fade out or go south. They could bring  rain or ice. Don’t miss tomorrow’s exciting episode of As The GFS Turns for more questions and yet another scenario.

On a more serious note, it is good that the models are showing a breakdown in our pattern. That and March’s active weather could get interesting.

3:30

Sigh. It is sunny and in the low 40s. The thermometer in the sun says a little over 50. Like Slug said, there are probably pockets like Chickadee that are still ok, but for me it is done until it snows. I did ride both sleds.

The GFS model is trying to get a handle on the big storm. Sometimes it works out good when they struggle with a big one. The latest 3 runs have it doing the Minnesota option (all rain here) once. Twice it is showing it pushed back to Tuesday, starting as rain, ending with nice snows, and a snowy few days behind it. It is worth watching, but I am not getting too invested in it yet. Some scenarios continue to suggest the start of a breakdown of the high pressure dominated pattern, and hopefully some stormy days.

In the meantime I am parked for now.

AM Report

Friday brought a little more sun than we had hoped, along with some traffic. Saturday did not bring 35 and cloudy with an inch of snow as predicted. It brought 41 degrees, traffic, no snow, and more sun than we wanted to see. The end result was some rapidly degrading trails, some of which were just good enough to start with. There were some good miles to be had, but some bad trails in marginal areas too.

Sunday brought a little relief when it  brought what we had hoped would happen Saturday.. a big overcast, a high of 35, and light snow all day.

There were a few long faces Saturday, but be happy you rode when you did. Unless you are riding today or Tuesday, the near future does not look promising. The force field of high pressure that has made our winter miserable will be rejoining us this week. Look for a sunny week with highs in the mid thirties to low forties. As the high pressure moves east late week, the back of the clockwise circulation will likely bring some warmer air, entering the possibility of one or two of those sunny days getting out of hand temperature-wise.

If you think that I am a real bundle of joy this morning, just wait. The big storm that I have been hoping after for three weeks finally started getting closer in the forecast. Now we are looking at it coming about next Sunday. The forecast models are flopping a little on this one. The first two model runs on Sunday showed it coming in as a glorious 12-15″ snow storm. The second two really dashed hopes. Those are showing the high pressure not moving far enough east, and the storm heading north over Minnesota. That would still bring us 1-1.25″ of precip, but the rain snow line wouldn’t be south of Lake Superior or within 300 miles of us to the west. Like the January storm, it would leave a little, but not much snow in it’s wake. Behind the storm the high pressure returns and pushes the next storm south, leaving is in bad shape through the 15th.

So it looks like the big storm could make or break the quest for another good ride or weekend.

Is it time to give up? It is just a forecast. What if it changes again, and this time shows a foot of snow sometime between Thursday and Sunday? And then a second storm just like it? Birmingham and Atlanta aren’t the only places that get snow.. It could still happen.

I will admit that I have a hard time admitting that the season is over every year. At the same time I wouldn’t tell you to bet a weekend on a 5-7 day out forecast either way. The same criteria should probably apply to the end of the season. March is full of surprises. It may end badly, but it may not. We could well get another storm, another ride, another weekend.

On the personal side.. I did get talked out of my riding time late week by work. That had to be. Today I am going to need the secret password, severe arterial bleeding, to talk me out of it. As usual the day will start with some shop time. I have visions of auctioning off the XLT and parts to try and finance another broken down or low buck needs work project sled or two, RXLs naturally. I have two in mind, but need to cross a payday or two. Four RXLs? Sure, why not?  No tellin’, Ed & Steve..

While looking for the stickers for #2 last week, I found out that the XLT is good through this year. I did not know that, or it might have seen a few more miles. That could see some work and then a few miles, and then another ride with RXL #2 is planned.

Well, I am off to bed about 3 hours earlier than usual. Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Greetings and welcome!

I only have a few things to cover here, then I am hoping to buckle it up and ride.

It is a sunny start to the day but so far not a warm one. We have peaked at 27, and the forecast is for 30. The sun is not expected to last long. The clouds are already going onshore from Lake Michigan and heading this way. They have made significant progress between when I wrote this and when I proofed it, and it shouldn’t be long now.

Last night I was surfing around trying to figure out an easy way to keep my RXLs running a little cooler on hard packed trails. Early 90s 650s were always warm blooded, and mine are no exception. I did not find my answer, but I found this. Maybe it is just what we need in these crappy El Nino years.

MissFire left a comment this morning that the NEW Low Buck Vintage Riders is having a trail ride this weekend from Racer & LanaRae’s (on W just east of Caldron Falls Rd) over to the Pines at Crooked Lake and back. This vintage ride has been a hit for many years. The old iron is great, and the people are too. The way that I remember it, newer sleds are welcome too, but you ride in back of the pack (koff koff).  Checking out this ride is highly recommended. You might even win an antique sled in a raffle. While you are down there, check out the outhouse races by Wheel Inn, almost across the road from Racer’s. My apologies for missing the vintage pinch on my event calendar.

They have dialed back snow expectations a little for tomorrow. We are still in for maybe 1/2″ by Saturday noon, about half of what was predicted before. That is a tough call for forecasters to make. Predicting energy and precip on the back of a storm is about like predicting a lava lamp. Good luck with that. At any rate there should be at least a few flurries or snow showers over the weekend. While it might not have an impact on the trails, it should be as I put it yesterday, festive. You neven know, there could be a pleasant surprise brewing too.

Well, I am off to pull the rope before I get sucked into the day’s work.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB