Tuesday 1-16-18 Late Update

Greetings and welcome!

We had a cold night Monday night with near zero lows. Tuesday we had clouds and mid-20s. The end result is that the 4+ inches of snow settled into about 3+ of fairly sturdy snow. Tonight we are at zero at 11pm heading for a low of -5. That should all go well for the freshly groomed trails.

This snow was an unusual one in that places to the north and west that usually get more snow saw lower totals, and areas to the east saw more. That was the lake enhancement kicking in. That will lead to a variety of conditions.

Areas to our west saw a lot of traffic last weekend. With only 2-4 to work with it might get a little thin. We are a little better off with a little more base and 4+ of new snow to work with, but everyone wants more snow.

One friend said that the local trails looked really nice after they were groomed. I wouldn’t hesitate to ride around here, but there will still be some early season stuff like terrain features that the grooming hasn’t completely fixed.

The wildcard in all of this is a big warm up for late week. The NWS is looking for 36 Friday and 38 Saturday. That has me a little nervous. Friday doesn’t look too bad in my guidance, but Saturday we are looking at 50 degree upper air temperatures. While I don’t expect it to get that warm here on the ground, it still isn’t good, especially for areas with marginal conditions and high traffic.

There is a storm showing up in the forecast from about mid-day Sunday through Monday. If there was a Buy It Now button on the forecast model I would be clicking it furiously. I am seeing a southern storm with ample moisture and a near perfect path for heavy snow for NE Wisconsin. As shown it would be a 6+ inch storm. The QPF on it shows 1″ to 1.5″ of rainfall equivalent. Using a typical 10:1 or 12:1 ratio and subtracting 30% for early rain it still ends up being a lot of snow.

There is also another storm showing up about a week later that would be a big snow producer.

It is nice to see us get out of that cold weather and snowless weather pattern and into something a little more active. Hopefully the storms hit as shown and get this season rolling with trails in their full glory. I have spent enough time watching it snow somewhere else.

I really wish that I didn’t have to work tomorrow. The trails are freshly groomed, the roads have a little base to them, and it is going to be in the mid-20 tomorrow. Gosh I am not feeling very good.. cough cough..

Have a good Wednesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB