Greetings and welcome!!
We have had a very warm fall with recent weather too warm to freeze the ground or waters. For the most part we have had highs in the mid to upper 40s, some 50s, and lows just around freezing.
So far we have only has a very light dusting of snow a few weeks ago, but we do have some snow in the forecast. There is a storm coming overnight with 1-3” coming hot n heavy and 40-50 mph wind gusts. There is rain behind the snow once the sun comes up. Between that and a 40 degree day I only expect scraps of snow to survive the day.
I am seeing long range models showing a big storm right around the end of the month. There was a super huge looking storm for about Thanksgiving in the forecast a few days ago, but the models have moved away from that solution.
After that the models are showing much colder weather. It is like walking through a door and going from low 50s to low 30s with snow. Interesting.
I’d really like to see a foot of frost in the ground and swamps and lakes freezing first, but if its gonna snow its gonna snow. It’ll freeze. A nice base before the season will bring its own rewards.
As far as the winter outlook I think that we are in for a good one. We are in for a neutral ENSO or possibly a mild LaNina. Anecdotally when we stay slightly on either side of neutral we have a good year. Usually it is the stronger years on either side that bring the hard times. Last year was a strong El Nino and to understate things a little it sucked. I don’t want to relive it so I will leave it at that.
Anyway, it is going to look a lot like winter early Thursday morning with heavy snow and high winds. Sounds like a heads up to get winter toys tuned up and the club membership and trail pass dance under way.
I will be back soon.
RJB