2.25.2010 Thursday

6PM

It is a little early to drop the gavel, but I think we might have dodged a bullet today. It was sunny out, but it was also in the mid-20s. There was not a lot of visible melting around the yard, though there had to be some sun erosion on sunny hills and such. From here it doesn’t look like we lost much. Yesterday’s tracks are still in puffy snow, the roof isn’t dripping, and it is cold out. Unless tomorrow gets really out of hand, we should be golden for the weekend.

Looking at the info, tomorrow has a chance of being not as bad as it sounds too. The cloud cover is only about 20-30 miles off of the west shore of Lake Michigan and moving this way. Hopefully that stifles tomorrow’s sun before it has a chance to get carried away. At the least we should have high clouds filtering it a little like we had today. SuperTomorrowView9000000-X shows full clouds by late afternoon Friday, and light snow or flurries by midnight. The half inch to inch of snow Saturday sounds festive too.

Today was a work day, so I that I can tell you so far is what I see off of the front step. It was a very full and productive day, but I haven’t left the house, let alone go ride my new toy. I have very different plans for tomorrow.

The weekend forecast is a good one, cloudy and light snow or snow showers with highs in the low to mid-30s. If all of these forecasts hold together, it should be a good weekend.

Specifics..

The new snow benefited from about Caldron Falls Flowage and points west. There we saw 2-4. Trails should be improved toward Lakewood, Crooked Lake, Mountain, and up 32 into Forest County. We did not lose much to melting this week, the trails should be like last weekend with varying amounts of new snow. That should continue to bring good conditions to the north and west as well as the areas that saw snow. Iron snowshoe still has some trails closed east of Parkway and south of C.

Happy trails and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Noon Report

Greetings and welcome!

We have a sunny day outside today. Happily it has only gotten to 26 so far.

According to the latest from the NWS and the TV, things are going our way a little. They now have the clouds and light snow chances moved up to Friday night. The TV actually shows snow moving overnight and a chance of some (light) new stuff on the ground for Saturday morning. Now if we can just move it up to Friday morning, or better yet, Thursday noon…

Today is a work day, but I am going to try to get out for a ride a little before sunset. I haven’t decided on heading north vs heading toward Lakewood or Crooked Lake yet, but those are the leading choices at the moment.

Last Friday I was depressed about the melting snow and the fading season, and I did one of my favorite things. I went for a ride in the woods in the truck. It was very therapeutic. Along the way I shot a few pictures of recently opening spring creeks along the road..

Thanks Randy.

I forgot to put it in a subsequent post, but the water slide video was real? fake? It was a very well done fake. They used 3d and compositing to have the impossible look like it was done. They came out with the truth so that folks at home wouldn’t get any ideas.

One last item, Dan from Chute Pond left a comment and verified that they had 3-4″ too. As Monty Burns would say.. Excellent…

Overnight Report

Last Call?

Greetings and welcome!

I almost have to think that this weekend is last call for most people for trails in these parts. Mostly I base that on my look at the GFS for next week, which looks like sun, sun, and more sun. The sun is getting hot to the point that it did burn 2-3″ off of the sunniest hillsides in only a matter of a few hours of full sun yesterday. Most places fared fine, but plowed roads, road shoulders and the sunniest of spots saw sunburn. If next week brings a week of mostly sunny days and temps in the mid-30s or higher, the following weekend will probably be a non-starter, at least around here.

There is still a very nice storm for that weekend, about 3-7, but at the moment the GFS has it coming in Sunday night which won’t help most of you.

In addition to the sun, our normal high temp is climbing past freezing. In Rhinelander yesterday the normal high is 31. When I look at the variability of the area’s climate, I see swings of +/- 10ºF as normal and very likely, and swings up to +/-20 within normal variability. Add that to a normal high in the low or  mid-30s, and you will understand my concern.

Along that same line the forecast for the next 2-3 days has me a little nervous mostly because of the sun. Today’s predicted high of 27 & partly cloudy is bad enough, but when the NWS starts with the mid-30s and partly cloudy Friday and Saturday I am a little nervous. There is nothing worse than reporting good trails mid-week and watching them melt Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

There is still a chance that the big low out east could move west a little and not only cloud us up, but bring light snow for the weekend. The NWS is showing that for Sunday, but today, Friday and Saturday still in the partly cloudy category. The GFS is a little better for Saturday, but Friday is up for grabs.

Zooming back to the present day…My travels yesterday showed me that the snow was very area specific. Even a few miles east of here totals drop dramatically.

Athelstane had less than an inch new. It got to be a little more at the Silver Cliff line and west. West of about Rapids Resort seemed to have 3+ or better, at least as far as the county line. I haven’t been west of there or north yet. The radar showed the snow hitting nicely from Carter south probably well past Mountain, and they probably saw a nice boost of fresh stuff.

Yesterday’s test ride was a blast. Ol #2 gave me a lot of grief in the shop, and needed every imaginable service, and yesterday was my turn. My ride took me down Landing 11, across to Chickadee and to where Chickadee meets C and back. They clearly had some good snow that way. The bad trail between the two roads had been panned by the Iron Snows, and was glorious compared to what that stretch looked like a few days ago. There was no dirt, a couple of puddles, an icy base, and otherwise good trails. Chickadee was a riot as always, and had plenty of new snow, at least 3-4″. I didn’t have the camera for that because it was a 10 minute test ride in shop clothes that was so fun that it went 30 miles.

RXL #2 is my new dirty girl. There has to be a mod chip in there or something. It has a non-Polaris no name EFI box, and is really snappy. It is head and shoulders faster than my other one with a fresh rebuild on the engine. Just wow, what a little snot for an old sled.  Even the neighbor came back grinning from his test run. The suspension is softer and was a nice ride. Add a high windshield, and I am one happy fat guy. Hey did someone mention a sundae bar? (stomach growls..)

As always, Chris did a better job of collecting events for this weekend than i did. We have some good ones..

At the moment my advice would be to ride as soon after the snow as possible. There will be nice trails. Areas that did not see much snow should look a lot like they did last weekend. What the next two or three days will work out to be is the question now.

Have a good Thurssday and thank you for visiting!

RJB