December 7th, 2009

Dec 7, 2009

Evening Update

The latest forecast model runs have the forecast on track as described in my morning report.

The NWS has upgraded the forecast to a winter storm warning for almost the whole state of WI.  They are looking for 7″ Tuesday night and 3 more Wednesday, along with wind gusts in the 30 mph range. Typically the NWS is on the cautious side with their snow totals, for them to offer those numbers and a 100% chance both days is significant.

Every weather information  source that I have is sold on the same scenario.  The snow is less than 24 hours away, then we know for sure.

Morning Report

Well, I am up at 9am with a long list of pre-storm stuff to tackle today, but it is still in the mid-teens off of our overnight low of about 10. Since the temps will almost double in the next hour, I will start here. Since my overnight report at Midnight, the NAM model has updated twice, and the GFS and HPC once.

They are slightly more enthusiastic about the storm’s potential in the case of the NAM and HPC. The NAM has been out in front for precip right along, and this morning they upped the QPF on the storm to 1-1.25″ for our area.  The HPC upped numbers from 0.5-0.75 to the 0.75-1.0″ range. The GFS remained with their 0.75-1.0″ prediction.

As I mentioned yesterday, the storm will have a lot of cold air involved, and what I am seeing for upper air temps suggests that the snow will be  fluffier than usual.  At that point I am looking for a 12:1 or 14:1 snow to rainfall equivelent ratio.

So we are getting 12-15″ of snow and high winds? That is what the info at hand is showing me this morning.  The NWS is a little more reserved, with 6″ and 25mph winds in the regular forecast.

Virtually every source that I checked this morning is on board with a big storm, 6+ inches of snow, and wind and cold behind it. Why am I still skeptical, especially since the storm overnight in the Fox Valley and east central WI went pretty much right on cue?

It is still 36 hours out, and the hype is right up there.

Maybe it would be fun for some of you weighing in with your thoughts & predictions.

Well it is an hour later, and as expected, the temp is up 10 degrees. At that point I am going to go and dive into a full day. Have a good one and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Overnight Report

Greetings and welcome!

Does everyone kn0w what today is? If you don’t you should.

I will probably end up updating again tomorrow between agenda items, but I can’t be sure, so here we go.

The storm for Tuesday night to Thursday looks to be right on track in the latest model runs. The HPC and GFS are right on board the way they have been for the last few passes. That puts us into the 6-9″ category.

The last run of the NAM has the storm getting a touch stronger and moving a bit farther west. It also moved the QPF up, so that we would be looking at a possible 9-12, and 12-15 near Green Bay.

At the same time it drops the previously predicted central pressure of the storm from 980 to 976 and moves the low closer. Add some wind and storm strength.

Am I the only one having a hard time buying all of this? Certainly it would be great, but that old rule of I can’t believe in it until I can roll in it applies.

For now I am taking it seriously, but not getting motionally invested in it. If it strengthens enough to go to 50+ wind gusts and a foot of snow, it gets pretty real.  If it is still on track tomorrow night at 24 hours out, I will get excited.

I did have a very full day Sunday getting ready for it. I finished closing in the blue room, moved some stuff for the snowplowing, moved some sleds, and actually heard two of them run. Monday if the storm stays on track, the plow goes onto the truck and the place gets battened down for heavy weather, and I will hit the gas station too.

Now comes the hard part.. Waiting 48 hours to see if it all comes true.

If we do actually get a foot of snow, you will want to be careful of ice conditions. The lakes are a couple of weeks behind on freezing up, and were open a week ago.

The storm will bring the first cold blast of the year behind it. Next Sunday looks like the first day in the 20s. Other than that Thursday-Saturday we are looking at highs in the low to mid-teens and lows just above zero according to the NWS forecast.

That will go a long way toward freezing stuff up solidly. This is the one that will freeze unprotected pipes and make them burst, and remind us that the car battery is old.

The last few days working outside have brought some acclimation to the cold and working out there in the high 20s and low 30s. Looks like it is time for step #2.

Well, I am knocking off early tonight in favor of an early start in the morning. Have a good one and thank you for visiting!

RJB