Friday January 22nd, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

It looks like my optimism for the weekend has been dashed. Curses! Foiled again.

Sort of.

Checking the latest updates it looks like a chance of light rain most of the day on Saturday, more rain Saturday night and Sunday morning, then something good happens Sunday afternoon. If it comes as shown we will not have a good weekend, but we will be very happy later.

The NAM maps are showing the low approaching toward the HPC Twin Cities scenario. Then a second low forms, and comes up right where the best storms go, between Chicago and Sheboygan. The snow would start Sunday afternoon, and it would still be snowing Tuesday.

Eliminating the first 36 hours of the QPF map for rain, it still shows us in the 3/4-1″ range, and close to the 1-1.25″ range. Translate that to 9-12 or 12-15? I question if it will switch over that fast, so I will consider the lower end of it.

The GFS is slightly more restrained with 6-9″ starting 54 hours out when they show it changing over. I want to believe, I really do.

I also want to believe the balance of the 16 day GFS, where there is not a warm day in sight. We might actually return to cold weather next week (hi/lo= 15/0) if it works out.

At the moment all that I am sure of is that it is 36 and sunny- again, and things are melting- again.

On a larger scale things are changing. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in retreat in 3 of 4 zones, and the 4th is leaning that way. Link(PDF) Look at the fifth page where it has graphs and says “NiƱo Region SST Departures (oC)Recent Evolution”.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been a big forcing in our recent weather. it sent our normal January weather west and south of us and left us balmy. That too appears to be in retreat. Link1 Link2

In theory we should be getting closer to a typical winter, whatever that is.

As far as conditions, around here just say no. Riders last night said that Lakewood and points north were still ok. That might change with today’s 36 and sunny plus traffic.

I rode about 40-50 miles locally yesterday and saw a wide variety of conditions. A lot of trail was great base, but hard packed. There were also a lot of places where the dirt was winning the snirt content war. Most roads are not nice unless there is a trail in the ditch. The thing that sent me home was too many 20-75 yard plus gravel or dirt spots on the trail.

Where the trail was nice, it was very nice and flat. The groomers did a good job, and where there was snow, I was making great time. A decent snow would make it really nice with the A-1 flat base.

My apologies to the guys from Manitowoc last night that I didn’t have my camera. It was great to meet you guys though.

The new trail camera is still in the mail. It was shipped from Florida a week ago, but the weekend and Monday’s MLK holiday slowed it down. I should get it this coming Monday. I was wishing for it on the trail yesterday too.

That is about it from here. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!