Friday Night 2-8-19 Snow Outlook Discussion

Greetings and welcome!

Some winters are a real drag as we watch the storms go past us one after another, as we starve for snow and only get the Arctic blast behind the storm. At the moment we have the exact opposite of that going on. The last couple of snow storms were just about perfect bullseyes for where we needed them to track for good snow in the area. From what I am seeing on the 16 day GFS forecast model that will continue for at least a couple of weeks.

Our first chance at snow comes Sunday afternoon. That one looks like an inch or two. Storm number two is showing up about Tuesday. That one looks a lot like the last two storms with about 4-8″ or more, wind, and significant snowfall rates. It looks like a strong storm.

Storm number three has my attention. It might not even be there in a couple of days, but it is most impressive tonight. According to the forecast model, that one would hit next Thursday night and Friday. As shown it would be a full on blizzard.

Before we go any farther we need a disclaimer. I love a good disaster movie, but it isn’t real. Right now this kind of in the same category. It is a 6 day out forecast. If it were two days out I would be coming back from town with a wagon full of groceries and supplies. For now it is just a possible scenario that is likely to change. Anyway.. start the doom cartoon..

020819gWhat we are looking at here is a 60 hour precipitation forecast in rainfall equivalent. I usually figure on 8-12″ of snow per inch of rainfall equivalent. This will be a cold storm so it could go a little higher. We would be on the edge of the 2-3″ zone. Golly.

The model is showing a 980mb central pressure and very closely packed isobars. That means a very strong storm and lots of wind. While it is not apples to apples, a 980mb central pressure in the Atlantic would be a cat 1 hurricane.

It has lots of snow, lots of wind, and a perfect path to nail us. So what if we really do get a foot and a half of snow and 50+MPH winds? It would be a pretty good storm, not unlike what they had mid-state last year. I remember the picture of the guy opening the front door and it was drifted tight top to bottom with an imprint of his door on the drift.

Like I said if I saw this two days out I would be very concerned. For now it is just a cartoon that bears watching. As shown it would be quite a storm.

Anyway there are a couple of more storms showing up in the 16 day GFS forecast model, including a real dandy at the end of the time frame. Those we can worry about later if they are still there in a week.

Extended Play..

Even without the storms this coming week I think that this will be an extended season where we can ride into April. We have a big ice base and a couple of feet of compact snow on top of it. Unless it gets really warm (like a few years ago.. 70F in March) it is going to take a long time to melt all of this.

El Nino-

What is going on here? I though El Nino years were usually terrible. Some are, some aren’t. What I think is happening is that our El Nino is in temporary decline. The ENSO 3+4 regions have gone from a peak of almost +1C warm in December to only 0.32C now. It looks like it will bounce back eventually but for now the 3+4 region is much cooler than it was, and almost at the baseline.

One of the things that I kind of believe is that a declining El Nino is good for snow here. It is just an observation based on no scientific anything. Whatever the case we are having quite the year for mid-season snow.

As always I will keep an eye on the storms and keep you up to date.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!