Monday 11-25-19

Winter Storm Warnings Issued LINK


Greetings and welcome!

The big storm is right on track for tomorrow night. They have issued winter storm warnings for northern Marinette Co and points north and west. The warning says 8-12 north of a line from Merrill to Iron Mountain, and 4-8 south of there. Snowfall amounts may only be a couple inches along a Waupaca to Crivitz line.

Where I am in Silver Cliff is about 10 miles south of the Merril to Iron Mountain line.

The real question is where the rain/snow line sets up. That will make the difference between 4″ and 12″. I have to suggest that it is a little tough to pin that down within 10 or 20 or 30 miles a day out.

The QPF of the storm has changed very little, see the maps on my last update.. The GFS model shows 1.5-2.0″ and the NAM model shows 1.0-1.5″. That is in rainfall equivalent. I usually look for 8 or 10 inches of snow per inch of rainfall equivalent. If we estimate half of the precip to be rain and use an 8:1 conversion 4-8″ of snow is a fair guess.

Travel will probably be ugly Tuesday night and Wednesday. The snow will come on some strong winds driving it at 15-25mph or more with some gusts. That is tough driving in heavy snow when it is blowing that hard.

Everything that I have says that we are in for a pretty good storm. The rain/snow line is going to be the key and we won’t know until it happens. We can guess pretty good tomorrow, but it is a fine line to guess.

The TV says Lakewood will get 5″ by Wednesday morning and 9.1″ by Wednesday night.

There is another storm for Saturday morning into Sunday afternoon. This is a much weaker storm but it could bring light snow for an extended amount of time. I have reduced confidence in the forecast model predictions for after a big storm. Take that one under advisement until it gets closer.

That’s news. Have a good night and thank you for visiting!