Greetings and welcome!
All indications are that we are in for a big storm tomorrow. Both the GFS and NAM forecast models are in good agreement, and they have the storm on a perfect path for heavy snow for our area.
The NWS has upgraded us from a winter storm watch to a warning. They are warning of 7-12″, which seems pretty reasonable.
The precipitation estimates for the forecast models show .75-1.0″ (NAM) and 1.0-1.25″ (GFS) of rainfall equivalent. Using a rough 12:1 ratio, that would translate to a 9-12 or 12-15″ snow, if it all fell as snow. The GFS has the storm lingering a little longer, thus the higher totals.
Combined with some strong winds we might be in for some difficult travel Tuesday night and especially Wednesday.
It is a good thing that we are expecting snow. A busy weekend and 40+ degree temps did not end well for trail conditions.
Now comes that long wait for the storm.
Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!