Greetings and welcome!
Our Tuesday/Wednesday storm is still mostly on track.
The models have remained consistent about bringing the storm of a good path for heavy snow for our area. We are under a winter storm watch today, along with most of northern WI.
About the only differences that I have seen in the last couple of model runs is a slight reduction in the precip amounts. The morning TV weather guy had us for about 6″ over by Marinette, about 9-10 here and 11-12 near Antigo.
The HPC is still on board with their QPF showing a possible 9-12. They are also showing us getting the Friday storm, with Iron Mountain pointed out for 0.93″, about 11″ of snow.
Here is the latest for Athelstane from the NWS..
Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph.
Tuesday Night: Snow likely before midnight, then snow and areas of blowing snow after midnight. Low around 27. East southeast wind 8 to 11 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches.
Wednesday: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. East northeast wind between 11 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Here is the current NWS Winter Storm Watch..
Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 416 AM CST MON FEB 27 2012 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA MID-WEEK... .A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. WARMER AIR SURGING BACK TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-271830- /O.NEW.KGRB.WS.A.0002.120229T0000Z-120301T0000Z/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET- MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ 416 AM CST MON FEB 27 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS EARLY AS MID-DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. * SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A KEWAUNEE TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS LINE...WHILE TOTALS OF 9 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THIS REGION. * STRONG EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THE SNOW COMBINED WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN A VERY HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL OR PLOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. BE SURE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.
They have also added a chance of snow in their forecast wording from Thursday night into Saturday, recognizing the possibility of the Friday storm coming our way.
We are still about 36 hours away from seeing action on the Tuesday-Wednesday storm, so the forecast could still change. With really consistent agreement among the model guidance it is starting to look somewhat promising.
With the forecast talking about 9-15″ of wet heavy snow and 20-30mph winds it sounds like it should be taken somewhat seriously in spite of my skepticism. That could make travel next to impossible for a day or two.
You know that I will be watching and reporting.
Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!