Greetings and welcome!

Our Tuesday/Wednesday storm is still mostly on track.

The models have remained consistent about bringing the storm of a good path for heavy snow for our area. We are under a winter storm watch today, along with most of northern WI.

About the only differences that I have seen in the last couple of model runs is a slight reduction in the precip amounts. The morning TV weather guy had us for about 6″ over by Marinette, about 9-10 here and 11-12 near Antigo.

The HPC is still on board with their QPF showing a possible 9-12. They are also showing us getting the Friday storm, with Iron Mountain pointed out for 0.93″, about 11″ of snow.

Here is the latest for Athelstane from the NWS..

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph.

Tuesday Night: Snow likely before midnight, then snow and areas of blowing snow after midnight. Low around 27. East southeast wind 8 to 11 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches.

Wednesday: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. East northeast wind between 11 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Here is the current NWS Winter Storm Watch..

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
416 AM CST MON FEB 27 2012

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA MID-WEEK...

.A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO THE AREA. WARMER AIR SURGING BACK TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH COULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-271830-
/O.NEW.KGRB.WS.A.0002.120229T0000Z-120301T0000Z/
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...
TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU...
WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ
416 AM CST MON FEB 27 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
  WISCONSIN AS EARLY AS MID-DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
  IS EXPECTED TO FALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW COULD
  BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A KEWAUNEE
  TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS LINE...WHILE TOTALS OF 9 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
  NORTH OF THIS LINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE STILL
  SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
  DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF
  WARM AIR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL
  TOTALS IN THIS REGION.

* STRONG EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
  DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THE SNOW COMBINED WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
  MIXING WITH THE SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
  WILL RESULT IN A VERY HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT
  TO SHOVEL OR PLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW COULD SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. BE SURE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

They have also added a chance of snow in their forecast wording from Thursday night into Saturday, recognizing the possibility of the Friday storm coming our way.

We are still about 36 hours away from seeing action on the Tuesday-Wednesday storm, so the forecast could still change. With really consistent agreement among the model guidance it is starting to look somewhat promising.

With the forecast talking about 9-15″ of wet heavy snow and 20-30mph winds it sounds like it should be taken somewhat seriously in spite of my skepticism. That could make travel next to impossible for a day or two.

You know that I will be watching and reporting.

Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!

RJB