Greetings and welcome!
Congrads to the Pack. That’s all I have to say about that. Like Blizzard-zilla last week, there are plenty of places to get your hype about that, so I’ll skip it here.
The warm day Saturday wasn’t good. From what I saw between here and the BP Sunday the trails kept their base but were stained from the thaw and traffic. Roads and their shoulders took it hard. There will be good and bad spots.
I will get a better look later today in my travels. Unless it snows before I get out, I will bring the camera.
We are expecting a little light snow late today and tonight. Not much accumulation is expected. After that we are in for a cold week with highs of 10-15 and lows in the zero to five below range.
There is another storm expected for Saturday and Sunday, along with temperatures in the 20s. Again it just looks like light snow.
Several of you asked over the weekend about some warm weather coming up on the GFS. There is some possible, but mostly it is in the far reaches of the 16 day outlook.
This weekend could be close to too warm. So far the highs look about right in the mid-20s. The GFS is showing a warm couple of days for the 17 & 18th (Tr & F) and a little light rain. It is worthy of concern, but it is a forecast for a week from Thursday. There is one to watch about the 23rd or 24th too, maybe with a storm.
Rather that worrying about long term specifics I have been watching the GFS showing a pattern change for a few passes now. Right now we have high pressure to the north that has the storm path coming out of the northwest and pushing the storms south of us. The GFS is showing that changing to a more zonal flow where storms start moving from east to west rather than out of the northwest and down to Birmingham.
This puts us into play a little more for storms. The ones that come east to west drop a lot of their moisture going over the Rockies, so they are a little played out when they get here. Where we are in the game is that if one dips south and picks up Gulf of Mexico moisture support we could see a bigger storm in these parts. That scenario also brings the risk of warm days in advance of the big storms.
The two times that I have the least confidence in medium and longer range forecast models is looking past a big storm and when they are flirting with a pattern change. Often I have been well served by letting them ‘settle down’ a little before worrying about specifics. The GFS is pretty consistant with the zonal flow idea, but hang tough and see how it plays out.
Today looks like the warmest day of the week, and I have plans on filling it all of the way up. I sold the engine out of the XLT, and now I have to pull & crate it for shipping. That is the easy part, the shop looks like a tornado hit it, and it will be an hour or two before I could even pull it in. It will also require one last ride on an old friend before selling it off in parts.
The engine, pipes and big carbs are all going, the chassis stays and will go back to stock with another motor that I plan on building out of parts over the spring or summer.
I also have plans for a trip to town for gas & supplies, stocking firewood, and hopefully capping it off with an afternoon ride. It will be a full day.
Next weekend will be a full weekend around here too. Look at all of these events!
Near North Trail Riders Brat Fry
11am-5pm – Food & Refreshments, Raffles – the public is invited
|Chute Pond County Park
5 miles south of Mountain on Hwy 32
Chute Pond Snowmobile Drag Races
Racer’s registration at 9:00 am, racing at 11:30 am – $5 entry fee
|Trump Lake Pavillion
49th Annual Trump Lake Fish-O-Ree
9 am – 4 pm
|Town of Stephenson Park
Boat Landing 3 Rd.
High Falls Fish-O-Rama, Snowmobile Radar Run & Winter Fest
Sponsored by the Twin Bridge Water Ski Club
|Birch Hills Resort
Farfromsnoozin’ Bed Races on the Ice
Five person, coed teams – Beds provided
|Townsend Town Hall
36th Annual Family Fish-A-Ree
11 am – 5 pm
We had quite a few riders visit Rapids last weekend, and I am very appreciative of your support. Several of you slipped me donations, and again, thank you very much.
I got a few more group pictures this weekend, but still had a few get past me. If I don’t ask you please ask me. I like doing it, and it is cool being on the net. Ask these nice folks..
Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!