Monday January 30th, 2012

Greetings and welcome!

We are going to talk about the weather a little today.

First of all the snow overnight and this morning ended up being a little under 1/2″ of powder. I was caught off guard on the snow density because I really wasn’t expecting the coming warm front to pass with overnight temps reaching -2. We are also only up to 25 as of 1pm. It wasn’t much of a warm front so far. The snow pretty much followed the scenario of last Friday’s where it passed through fairly quickly, limiting totals.

The forecast for this week features a lot of mid and upper 30s. It sounds scary on the surface. A lot of my guidance suggests that it won’t be as bad as it sounds.

We are expecting a little freezing drizzle or light freezing rain tomorrow as a small system follows the boundary between warmer and colder air. Being close to the zero C line and having cloud cover from the small storm suggests to me that mid-30s and cloudy is about as bad as it will get.

If you have no idea what I am talking about with the zero C line and 850mb temperatures take a look at this post, it might help explain it. I warned right in that post that there might be a quiz later LoL.

While we could see some sun, the upper air temps on the models do not show us too much above normal for the remainder of the week. What I am seeing now does not suggest as bad of a week for snowmobilers as it sounds in the forecast.

That is probably good. A lot of trails saw a lot of action last weekend and could do without a melt. Unfortunately it looks like we have had our snow for the week with the 1/2″ or so last night and this morning.

Looking at the 0C and -10C lines a guess at the -4C rain/snow line puts it north of Lake Superior

The GFS is showing an interesting weekend ahead. I expect this scenario to change, but I will report what is there. It is showing a reasonably comfortable Friday and Saturday with temps probably in the upper 20s. Saturday night it is showing a weak southern storm coming our way for Sunday. The bad news is that the rain/snow line is being shown as well north of Lake Superior (left picture), and the 1.0-1.5″ of precip as rain for WI and the UP. There is snow behind it, maybe 1-3 or 2-4.

Usually a low tracking here is good for snow in NE WI

I mentioned that I expect that to change. First of all I think that the precip is a little overstated. The GFS does that sometimes, especially farther out in the forecast. (Just an observation..)

I am also not sure that the rain/snow line prediction is as dire as shown. The low is shown tracking over SE WI in a path that is usually good for us up here. (RH picture)

So for right now it is just a forecast and a chance to show you a little more about using model guidance. I do expect it to change as the week progresses.

Something else I have been expecting is showing up for late next week on the GFS and that would be a big blast of polar air. You probably heard about them having to get emergency oil and Gas to Nome, Alaska a few weeks ago because the supply ship was frozen out in Fall. Apparently they have been having quite a winter up there.

Followers of The Deadliest Catch where they crab fish the Bearing Sea are in for an interesting season coming up. Apparently the Bearing Sea is freezing up with the ice line going south at 20 miles a day instead of the usual three. The processor boat is ice bound and the season is pretty much lost. (BTW< expect crab leg prices to skyrocket..)

Anyway they have been hogging all of the snow and cold up there, and like all things, this too must pass. I expect to see a taste of that bitter cold stuff before the winter is over. It is showing up on the GFS about 2 weeks out. In this frame if you guesstimate the -4C rain/snow line, it could be cold enough to snow in the Gulf of Mexico off of the Louisiana coast and by New Orleans.

Being in the path of that we could see some bitter cold that week. That is the kind of stuff where we see -20s overnight and +5 for a high. At two weeks out it is just a guess. I’d also guess that there could be some changes behind it.

Back to the present..

Right now I expect the trails this coming weekend to look about like you left them on Sunday afternoon. Hopefully my prediction of limited warm weather comes true, and my prediction of no more snow this week is way off of the mark.

Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!