Monday March 7th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

The week ahead holds some promise of one last ride. Let’s hope that it works out for us.

We have had off and on snow today. It has added up to an inch or so, but only where there is already snow or ice. The roof, the truck, the back steps, and the bare ground are wet from the snow but have not accumulated any. The light snow is expected to continue off and on today and tomorrow.

The main event looks like it will come Tuesday night and stay into Thursday morning. If it goes down as currently shown we will be just on the right side of the rain/snow line. That will keep us guessing, but that also is where the most snow usually ends up, and usually it is the wet heavy stuff.

Right now the TV is showing us getting about 5″ out of it. The GFS is showing a QPF of 0.75-1″ or 1-1.25″ of rainfall equivalent, use a 10:1 or a 12:1 ratio to figure out snowfall possibilities (9-12 or 12-15). I would downgrade those numbers by 25-50% to account for mixed precip.

Just to keep things interesting, Thursday and Friday look to be on the warm side with mid and upper 30s and maybe some sun, but there is a storm for Friday night and Saturday that could bring another 2-4 or more.

This is probably our last chance to ride this year. The sun is getting warmer and is out much longer now. I was driving through an inch or two of mud yesterday in the sunny spot in my driveway. Daylight savings time switches over this coming Sunday, and that may be a warning sign too.

It is up to the clubs and county alliances when the trails officially close. If conditions warrant it, they can be open the whole month of March, but it would take a lot of snow to keep up with the sun by the end of the month. It can happen, but most years we are done by about the 15th.

I will be ready for a ride or two this week if the snow happens. It has been a few weeks. The long stretches of bare road and gravel between here and the trails have kept me away. With the prospect of not riding for 9 or 10 months looming large, I am about to get less fussy. I’m not going to throw sparks for 2.5-3  miles getting there, but if it snows over 3-4″ I will be planning a ride.

I know that many of you want a straight answer for the weekend by Tuesday or Tuesday night. We are not going to know until the end on this one, but I am pretty upbeat on the prospects of it.

It could go north, go south, hit everywhere but here, hit here and not hit the ground, or shift north and be an ice/rain storm. It might actually hit us too. The warm weather late week and the snow for Friday and Saturday make for interesting dynamics too.

In the end my bet is that we will see enough snow for the weekend to ride at least fair conditions, and the possibility is there for a lot more. It could end up really nice with fresh snow and lingering snow Saturday.

The TV is now showing that we are under a winter storm watch, and they have upgraded snow expectations in our area to 4-8. They are showing the rain snow line at about the southern tip of Oconto Co. With that and the chance of 3-6 Friday night and Saturday morning, I say hit that Buy It Now button.

Some people are riding around here, but not many. Word has it that there are better conditions toward Langlade, Antigo,  north and west of Townsend, and toward Pickerel.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!