Monday November 7th, 2011


Greetings and welcome!

I have watched all of the TV weather guys, checked my maps and models, and cyphered my gozintas. I am actually looking for the first snow tomorrow, and it could get interesting.

We have a strong southern storm headed out way in a classic form and path. This one is a troublemaker, it already spawned tornadoes about 200 miles from yesterday’s earthquake epicenter in Oklahoma.

Right now the models are showing some good and some bad for snow seekers. The good is that the low is being projected to cross over about Milwaukee, an ideal path for us up here to get snow. The bad news is that it is also shown heading north up Lake Michigan, moving the rain/snow line farther west.

Right now the NWS has a winter storm watch out for Langlade, Forest, and Florence Counties, and points north and west.

As is standard with a storm like this there is some variety in the models on exact details. They are in pretty good agreement overall that we will see the storm, and the back of it could bring some snow.

My guess is that we could see a little snow early in the storm tomorrow before it turns to rain. The warm wet air needsĀ  to overcome a drier air mass before the rain can fall without evaporating. As this first wave of rain evaporates on the way down, it cools the air, and subsequent rain could bring a few flakes when it does get to the ground level.

The main bulk of the storm should be rain for us and points east and south. The back of the storm could hold some snow as colder air gets pulled in. Some scenarios have the possibility of areas NW of about Rhinelander seeing 6+. We could see and inch or two, or maybe just a slushy coating.That is the forecast now.

It could be that the storm will move 300 miles east and we could be in for a dump of wet heavy snow, or it could go the other way and give us all rain. The back of the storm won’t be here until Wednesday, we are still 24-36 hours out.

As shown now this is a powerful storm, and it strengthens on the way through. The GFS was showing it getting as strong as a 988mb central pressure as it exits our region, the HPC si going with 986. Expect a lot of wind with and behind the storm.

It is also a classic double low pressure formation with one low pressure area right behind the other. The second one is usually the one to watch. The second round of the double barrel low has sponsored some of our better snow storms.

From the HPC Short Range Forecasts

If we do get snow, it will most likely be of the wet and heavy variety. The cold air wrapping into the back of the storm isn’t that cold. It is right on the edge of rain and snow, so expect the snow to be high moisture content. A lot of it could cause problems with taking down tree branches and power lines.

Whatever the case, this looks like a big and powerful storm complex headed our way. I will probably be up early buttoning things down and covering up stuff, and throwing in 3 or 4 days worth of wood.

Maybe it will just be an inch of rain and a little wind. Maybe it will be 6-9 of wet heavy snow and some wind. This storm looks like a very strong one, so stay tuned. I am skeptical because it is easy to get excited about an early storm like this, but that second low and double barrel system has my ears perked up. Will there be a November 10th gravel run or is that just pre-season dreaming?

I will also update as it progresses, possibly in the morning if there are any big changes, and likely later tomorrow.

Have a good night and thank you for visiting!