Saturday 10/3/15

Greetings and welcome!

We have had some freezing weather this week. The coldest that I saw was 28, but the last couple of nights have been in the mid-30s.

Right now I am stalling on going outside to tackle the mountain of outside work because it is only 43 degrees out. (The TV says Wabeno is only 41..) As long as I am hiding from the weather I grabbed the chance to do an update.

This winter looks like it will bring a medium strong El Nino. That isn’t good at all. I took a long look at the data Thursday night. It does not look like it will be quite as strong as 97-98’s El Nino, but it looks pretty robust.

At this link (PDF) farther down on page 24 theIRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook shows a composite graph of 26 models and the yellow line is the mean of them. It is showing a high probability of temperature anomalies of over 2ºC in Nino 3.4, one of the key areas. Anything over about +0.5º is considered El Nino conditions.

Looking at the probability graph we are in the 95% range for a 2º+ El Nino early winter and down to 55% for late winter and spring.

The long term outlook for Jan Feb Mar shows a very high chance of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

None of that sounds good.

Exactly how it will play out remains to be seen. Maybe it will work out well for us, you just never know. Personally I am getting ready for a strong winter just like I never heard of or followed the El Nino evolution.

The Snowmobile USA show in Milwaukee is coming up in October. Here is a link to their page.

Well I have dawdled as long as I dare, it is time to go and cut some firewood.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!