Greetings and welcome!
We have had some warm weather recently and between that and the rain the snow cover has been significantly reduced. That is good and bad. I think once it all freezes up what is still there will make a nice ice base.
We have a possible storm for Sunday night into Monday. The models have been pretty consistent the past few days and I really like what I see. The low pressure area looks to track over Chicago, putting us in a very favorable position for heavy snow.
Right now the big issue will be when the precip changes from rain to snow. The later it switches the less snow that we get. I’ve seen mostly rain numbers of 1-4 and mostly snow numbers of 6-10.
The NWS forecast discussion suggests a rapidly intensifying storm.. “In these most recent model suites, the definition of
“bombogenesis”- when the pressure of a mid-latitude cyclone drops at least 24mb within 24 hours. “
That can only be good for us.
That strong storm means strong winds. If we get heavy snow and 40mph winds travel will get a little sketchy for a while. Behind the storm is a days long blast of strong winds and cold air right out of the Arctic Circle. It is going to be a cold cold new years.
Those cold winds will add up to a lot of snow for the UP lake effect regions. Some areas could measure snow in feet.
The storm is a long way out before we start seeing how it turns out. Right now the forecast is for 1-10” but the NWS winter storm watch says 4-6”. On a storm like this the rain snow line is so unpredictable that you really don’t know until it happens.
Anyway, we are in the game and I like the look of this storm.
Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB