Saturday October 18th, 2014

Greetings and welcome!

The second snow of the year happened last night. The radar looked like it was centered on northern Forest Co and hitting a little of eastern Vilas and Oneida Cos. It probably didn’t amount to much, but it was snow.

The weather has been interesting this week. We had a very strong storm came through the region with heavy rain, then it went east, and backed up and kept the rain coming off of Lake Michigan and Superior. Yesterday it set up where an area of the UP including Escanaba and Munising just got pounded with wave after wave of heavy rain.

I tend to look at the weather through the lens of what if this were late December or mid-January? Yowza, this week would have been huge. My rain gauges have over 3″ in them for the week. The first inch or two probably would have rain or a mix, but the other inch and a half plus would end up as a foot and a half of snow, or more. The storm path would have been pretty favorable, and the extra rain when the storm backed up would have all been snow.

So it is time for my winter guess and weather outlook.

The professional outlook for this winter is for a 60-65% chance of an El Nino. There is not a real strong signal indicating that it will be a bad one. Most models are showing a prediction of a mild El Nino- a lot like we have been having this summer and fall.


We maintain this pattern of below normal temperatures and above normal precip, it will be a heck of a winter. There is also a very real possibility of a good old fashioned El Nino and a rough winter. I have been watching this all with great interest over the last few months and I don’t have a straight answer. My gut says be ready for a repeat of last winter, hopefully with a little less sub-zero stuff. At that point I will flip the odds and say 60% chance of another great winter, 40% chance of an El Nino that will be less snowmobile friendly. I feel good about it, but there is that nagging possibility.

Work work work. It has been a little really overwhelming this fall, so I haven’t been around for pre-season events and stuff like this weekend’s Snowmobile USA show. I am totally overwhelmed right now, but I will be back around when it really counts.

I don’t have time to talk about it tonight, but you should be aware of a new registration system in WI this year. It is called Cap-Step. A long story short, it is a two step registration/trail pass system that promotes club membership and brings them more money.  It looks like a good thing all around. I will bring you more info shortly.

It is time for me to wrap it up. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!