Sunday 11/24/19

Sunday 12:30am

Greetings and welcome!

It was a sunny but brisk opening day yesterday. Overnight we are at 32 at just after midnight. There is no snow on the ground.

When I went to Wabeno yesterday both Waubee Lake and Townsend Flowage were frozen over. Both had marks near the shore where they were frozen to different levels or maybe had opened up and refrozen.

Part of the reason for my update this morning is the Tuesday storm. the GFS and NAM models are in pretty good agreement about the storm path and intensity. It looks like a perfect bull’s eye for where we want storms to track with the low pressure area between Milwaukee and Green Bay. The storm does not look like it has a lot of moisture to work with, but there is enough.

Right now the TV weather channel 2-2 out of Green Bay is showing us in the 3-6″ band. That sounds about right if it tracks as shown. There is some Gulf of Mexico moisture shown, but it is not a river of moisture like the really big storms get. I am comfortable with 2-4 or 3-6.

The NWS has the storm starting Tuesday afternoon with a little rain that changes to snow late afternoon.

Tuesday-A slight chance of rain after noon, mixing with snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday Night-Snow likely, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday-A chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.

The TV is a little later with the storm, showing precip coming well after dark Tuesday night and lasting into Wednesday afternoon.

The isobars showing the pressure gradient are close together indicating that there will be some wind with the storm. It is shown reaching 992mb for central pressure, a moderately strong storm. If it had more moisture to work with it could be a good one.

The storm is still two plus days out so anything can happen . Right now it looks like snow.

Have a good Sunday and thank you for visiting!