Sunday December 20th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

Pre-Packers Update

As happens when a storm is possible a few days out, one of the first things that I did today was check the weather to see how the Christmas storm was shaping up

NCEP GFS- The GFS has shown the center of the storm passing over Chicago or Milwaukee the past few runs. The very latest run pushed it even a little farther west. Any of the last three model runs would bring significant snow to the upper Midwest and eastern WI, including us.

The HPC- The HPC latest prognostication leans more toward the Columbus, OH scenario. That would have the storm move NE out of the Four Corners area on a path more toward Columbus. That would probably skunk anyone north of about Milwaukee or Sheboygan for snow.

The idea that the last couple of runs have been consistent lends a little credibility to the northern scenario. We will have to see how the HPC sees it in the coming updates.  Right now my guess is 60/40 toward the Columbus scenario, leaving us out of the snow. In another day the shorter term models will pick up the storm and there will be a lot more scenarios presented. Things might get clearer then.

Right now my thinking is that the high pressure that would block the storm and send it north is not strong or organized enough to do so. At that point the storm would assume a more zonal path and head northeast toward Columbus.  We shall see.


Overnight Update

I did actually get out yesterday and shoot a few pictures around town. It was a dreary day with no contrast so it is hard to see, but here they are.

There were a few sleds out but not a lot.

We have a chance of snow early week with a small disturbance. The storm for Christmas is still a question of paths. The models have ranged from sending the low almost due north over Chicago and Milwaukee, to having it move northeast and go closer to Columbus, OH. Could be a lot, could be a little. Sometimes the best storms are surprises, and this one would be, my guess is the Columbus path.

In my getting back to normal quest I got a little time in out in the blue room yesterday. It was mostly cleaning and organizing and filling in some gaps.  It was good to get out there and start clearing a path. A few more hours and I will actually be ready to pull a snowmobile in. There is plenty of work ahead, and I will be on it.

Thank you very much to Lynn & Neal!

That is about it for now. Have a good Sunday and thank you for visiting!