Sunday February 13th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

Riders Saturday reported better than expected trails. There were a few bad spots but a lot of good trails too. It was a big event weekend and it was good to see a lot of riders around. Thank you to everyone that stopped at the Rapids.

Saturday started out a little sunnier than we would like to see, but the clouds filled in just about as it was getting too warm. Later it actually snowed about 1/4″.

Sunday got ugly. Athelstane Weather shows a high of 48.2, and as of 11:30pm it is still  43.7 and rising. The wind is howling in the trees speeding the melting. When I was outside getting firewood at sunset  the snow was very soft and a lot was gone.

The trip to the BP found road shoulders bare and the trails by Rapids and by Parkway a coco and brown snow. There was still base but it was ugly.

Several people asked on Saturday if this was our last weekend on the trails for the year. I am going with no. The prospects for this coming weekend are weak, but next week looks promising.

It looks like a warm week ahead. The coolest days before Saturday will be Monday and Tuesday with temps in the mid-30s, and it goes up from there. I expect to hit 45- 50 and hope that I am wrong. There is also a little rain possible mid and late week.

The late week storm looks like it will start as rain on Thursday and switch to snow Friday or Friday night. As shown now it could bring as much as 3-6 or 4-8. Behind the storm it is expected to go into the mid and upper 20s for the weekend.

Next week there is a storm showing for Tuesday that could go either way. It will likely start as a warm day and some rain and end with some snow. The current path is a little northwest of perfect, but close enough to bring decent snow. That storm is followed by cooler temps and light to moderate snow for about Wednesday and Friday.

If you look at the GFS we are clearly going into a more active stretch for weather. There will be some risk to that in the form of warm days and the chance of being on the wrong side of the rain snow line. There is also reward in that at least we are in play for a storm every few days. Eventually you’d hope that would go our way.

I don’t think that this is over yet.  I still think that this season has a couple of good weekends left. If we do get another shot I’d pounce on it.

As March comes we are going to start needing more and more snow as the days get longer and the sun gets hotter.  There is already some sun erosion and the sunset is up to 5:14pm, almost an hour later than at the December solstice. It isn’t bad yet but it is noticable. In a month it will be a lot worse.

Here are some pictures..


It was nice to meet and see everyone!

That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!