Sunday November 23rd, 2014

Greetings and welcome!

After our ten day stretch of cold we finally broke 32 degrees Saturday. It wasn’t by much, but it was a little warmer. By mid-afternoon the snow was getting very soft, and it easily crushed underfoot. We had 100% humidity, so it didn’t feel all that warm, but it was effective at melting snow.

Later after sunset came the fog and mist. The mist isn’t bad if it adds moisture to the snow pack, eventually that will turn to ice for our base. The fog on the other hand is a snow thief as the warm moist air meets our precious white stuff and evaporates it.

All of this is courtesy of warm moist air in advance of a large and pretty strong storm.  Based on central pressure, it is the strongest storm that I recall seeing in the past month or so. The models are offering up a steep pressure gradient as the storm develops, so I am expecting some pretty good winds behind the main event.

The storm is being shown having a favorable projected path, and plenty of warm moist air to work with. As is typical, it will start with some rain and change over to snow. Unfortunately it looks like we will see almost 50 and rain Sunday, and a pretty good bit of rain Sunday night before the switchover sometime Monday. That could be hard on our existing snow and be messy with the frozen ground under it.

This is where there is a little disagreement in my guidance.. The GFS has it changing over about noon Monday like the North American Model, but the GFS isn’t snowing much snow behind that line. The North American Model is showing precip on the snow side of the storm that easily could go 3-5 or better.

I am leaning toward the North American’s ideas, and I am expecting a pretty interesting finish Monday afternoon and night. Between the puffy snow and strong winds there will probably be some blowing and drifting and ugly travel.

Naturally behind the storm we are expecting a cold blast. We can expect mid twenties for a high temp until Wednesday. Wednesday a clipper will come through with a little snow and more cold air and by the weekend we will be lucky to see 20 degrees for a high temperature.

The ten day stretch of sub 32 weather has been very good for freezing up the lakes and the ground. It is a fine head start. As of Monday the guys from Riding With Dan & Dillon reported 4″ of ice on Bonita Bay on Chute Pond. I haven’t had a chance to go check the local ice, but a cooler left in the car last weekend had 3″ of ice in it Friday night.

This storm is offering kind of a rough start, but a cold and snowy finish, followed by more below normal cold weather. Considering that December is a week away and open trails are three,  it seems like a fine start.

Have a good Sunday and thank you for visiting!