Thursday December 15th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

Sorry that I am late today, my whole day is a little behind.

The day is very different than yesterday. Yesterday and especially last night the fog got very heavy. It was a challenge to drive in. Today is cloudy and colder (38 down to 30), and there is a strong cold wind coming out of the west. it is the typical cold blast behind the storm, but it isn’t that bitter cold yet.

Any slushy spots and puddles are now frozen or well on their way. We did lose some of the base, but not a lot. The stuff that remains will be a good ice base.

The chances of getting a ride in this weekend around here are about zero. There was a little hope when the storm started as snow, but that lasted less than 1/4″ worth before the rain and fog ate it. There are a lot of areas that held snow and have a 1/2″-1″ ice base. There is a lot of bare stuff too.

My sources say that there are not even conditions in the UP. The Hurley Chamber site says poor conditions, and various locations across the peninsula are all reporting  zero snow or not much.

It looks like we will start the first weekend of the  season with the sleds parked.

There isn’t a lot to be hopeful about in the short term. We are expecting a little colder weather (high of 25-30) into the weekend, with Sunday and Monday going into the low 30s. The only chance of snow is a minor disturbance that looks like less than 1-3. The NWS has it coming Friday night, the GFS says Saturday afternoon and night.

The storm for next week is showing some progress moving back north in the latest run of the GFS. It is still too far south to help our cause, but it isn’t well south of the state line anymore. It’s progress. As shown it would probably be rain again, the really cold air remains well to the north.

At the moment the prospect of riding this weekend look like zero, and next weekend (Christmas Eve & Day) is unlikely unless next week turns around in a big way. Even looking 16 days out there isn’t much to get excited about.

The best part of all of this is that I expect it to change. It isn’t unusual for us to miss out in December or even over the holiday stretch, but I remain skeptical about it happening this year.  The present forecast isn’t carved in stone any more than it would be if it were  showing two feet of snow next week.

On that note I will leave you with a couple of more pictures from last year’s archive. These spectacular pix came from Roger M of the Prairie View, IL group, taken over by Lakewood and Lilly River last year.


Have a good night and thank you for visiting!