Thursday January 2nd, 2013

Greetings and happy new year!

If you liked the trails last weekend, you will like this weekend too. N0thing has really changed. The cold weather has prevented any melting at all, and there has only been a very light dusting of snow.

Again this week it looks like Saturday will be the warmest day of the week. Saturday’s forecast is calling for mid 20s and a little light snow. Sunday goes back to the same old thing with highs in the zero to +5 range.

Monday has my attention. The forecast models have some upper level -30C air settling in over our region, and some windy conditions. Right now the NWS forecast is for a HIGH of -10 Monday and a low of about -20 Monday night. Combined with what the model suggests will be some moderately strong wind, we could be seeing wind chills in the -30 to -40 range. Tuesday could get back up to zero for a high, and by Wednesday the high of  +10 will feel like a heat wave.

Looking through the 16 day GFS model  I am not seeing any big storms coming our way, but there are a few clipper snows. It looks like early season conditions will be the rule for a lot of January.

Way out at the end of the 16 day model there are hints of a change of patterns. There is even the possibility of a thaw. Last night’s GFS model had a big push of warm, air showing up in western North America that could bring 40+ degree temperatures. I am not going to get any more excited about that than I would a foot of snow two weeks out, but a pattern change from bitter cold and no snow would be welcome.

I am seeing on their web site that the River Road Riders have been able to open some trails around Crivitz and Wausaukee, but still have some closed to the south and east. They have groomed a couple of times now.

The RRR club late trail openings are a function of honoring land owner’s requests. Most of the trails north and west of their system are on public land, and those clubs can open earlier. The RRR trails are almost all on private land, and they have to honor the landowners wishes. We should see more trails open after this week.

I am not planning on hitting the trails tonight. With lows in the -15 to -20 range, plus wind, riding alone at night seems like a pretty bad idea.  Once temperatures come back to a little more sane level, I will be saddling up again for some after work rides.

Well, the rooster has crowed, so I am off to get ready for work. Have a good Thursday and thank you for visiting!