Thursday January 9th, 2014

Greetings and welcome!

Here we are again.. -25ยบ at 6am. The bitter cold is hanging on for one more day.

The big question this morning is what will happen over the weekend. We have a moderately weak storm heading our way for later Friday and into Saturday, along with some mid and upper 30s for the weekend.

I am getting some very mixed signals on if the storm will be rain or snow. The models that I use the most, specifically the GFS and NAM, suggest that it won’t even be close, we are looking at rain. Usually I look at the 850MB temperatures to figure out where the rain/snow line will be, and I look for about -4C or colder for snow. According to those two models it won’t even be close, the rain/snow line will be well north of Lake Superior.

The NWS has a little cheerier outlook. They are looking for a wintery mix Friday into Friday night, and then about 4″ of snow overnight into Saturday. The HPC is also looking for a snowy outcome.

The NWS is also a lot more optimistic about weekend temperatures with 33 Saturday and 32 Sunday. That sure beats the 35-37 that my guidance is showing and that was previously forecast.

I really don’t know what to think. The model guidance that I use the most paints a warm and rainy picture, and it has been consistent about it over the past few days. At the same time, I like what the NWS and HPC forecasts say a lot better.

This all makes planning for the weekend a lot more difficult. I know that some friends from IL are planning a trip this way and I really don’t know what to tell them. Four inches of snow and low 30s would be great, an ice storm, rain, and upper thirties not so much. Right now the plan is to wait a half a day or a day and make the call when it gets closer. Stay tuned..

Have a good Thursday and thank you for visiting!