Here we are at December 1st, and no there is not enough snow yet. We did have a snow overnight that coated the ground and roads and made them slippery, but the sun came up, the day warmed, and it went away in all but sheltered spots. Sunday morning’s snow was a little heavier, but ended in the same result.

The ground is freezing up, and so are the lakes. We were well along toward that a few weeks ago, but the temps warmed up into the 50s and set us back. When I drove by the lake and flowage this week the ice was in sheltered and shaded spots and just reaching across with a thin shell at sunrise. The bigger bays on Caldron are not frozen up yet, but I did see a little one acre lake Saturday morning that was frozen all of the way across.

Now that December is here, temps will be dropping. There is a front passing through that will cool things off. There is also a storm for late week that right now looks like it will go to our south and east. We will still get in on the big blast of cold air behind it. Today we are looking at a hi/low of 40/30, by Saturday/Sunday it goes to 29/17 according to the NWS. That is almost exactly normal.

The storm is doubtful right now. It looks like it will go well east and south of us. If it gets bigger or the front pushing it east comes through slower, we could see some snow. Right now the NWS has us at a 20% chance for light snow tonight and 30% Wednesday Night-Friday.

Looking at the 16 day GFS it looks like we will be seeing a lot of cold air in the next few weeks. There are occasional disturbances with light snow, and favorable conditions for UP lake effect snow. Later in the 16 day time frame the weather gets a little more active, and snow chances increase. There are no big southern storms shown.

It is a less than idea scenario for early ditch banging or riding when the trails finally CAN open on December 15th. It is a good scenario for the longer term though. It would serve us to have the ground and lakes well frozen, or at least well on the way, before a blanket of snow insulates them. We have all seen those grody pictures of groomers buried in swamps. No thanks.

Our El Nino is showing a little hope. A few weeks ago it strengthened and started heading for the north end of the moderate scale. There was a lot of quick and deep warming, and it was certainly of concern. That was about when the cold and wet weather of October switched to the warm dry weather of November. When I checked this afternoon, the area just west of South America, the Nino Region 1, is starting to show a promising and growing plume of colder than normal water. I am not sure what will happen, but it has my attention.

As I mentioned above, the snowmobile season around here will not be able to open until 12/15, apparently due to hunting seasons. This year it is no big deal since we probably won’t have snow much before then. I am not worried. Yet.

Likewise, I am not planning on starting daily updates just yet. Right now it looks like Tuesdays and Thursdays, since I will be doing Iron Snowshoe updates those days as well. Also in question is if I will stay with this format with the comments, since almost no one has used it. Thanks to the weather, I have a little time to sort through it all.

If you recall, I was all over the Climategate global warming hoax exploding the last time that we wrote here. The government run media is still trying to hide and spin this away as nothing. It isn’t working. Newspapers all over the world are reporting on it, and the blogosphere is on fire about it. I just googled a word that didn’t exist 3 weeks ago, Climategate, and it returned 13.6 Million pages. The government run media won’t play, and it is instructive on how agenda driven their ‘news’ really is.

In the case of NBC, I understand, they are owned by GE, who has a huge investment in wind and other alt energy schemes. They actually have an interest in hiding the truth, billions of dollars betting on severe new energy restrictions.

In spite of what they are telling you on the news, this is a very real scandal. The information was released by an insider, not hacked. It was damaging beyond spin and BS. Last week the same thing happed in a climate research place in New Zealand, when inside info got released revealing their fraud. Now there are several others emerging. Nixon got the boot over 18 minutes of blank tape. These guys got caught in a widespread conspiracy that attempted global control and taxation of all energy usage via scientific fraud, concealment and conspiracy.

Anyway, here are a couple of sites that will tell you what the losers in big media want to hide and spin away.

Climategate

Climategate grows to include other research institutions

http://camirror.wordpress.com/

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/11/30/brit-hume-climategate-suggests-global-warming-may-be-fraud

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/11/25/climategate-smoking-gun-american-thinker-does-medias-job

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2009/11/27/msm-goes-ridiculous-lengths-avoid-climategate-ignoring-ipcc-chairman-r

China, India, Brazil, South Africa plan joint walkout if pressured at Copenhagen

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Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB