Greetings and welcome!
I am still probably too optimistic about the late week storm, but I like what I am seeing in the models.
The North American is the most pessimistic model with a chance for some rain and 2-4 on the optimistic side. The GFS model is more generous, with our 5 day precip forecast in the 1-1.25″ range. I like that one. Even if half of it is rain, that is still 6″ of snow. The HPC weighs in with a 5 day QPF of 3/4 to 1″.
While it isn’t a really strong one yet, this is a real live southern storm, something of a rarity this winter. I like where the models are tracking the low, but it is still a few days away, so that could be very subject to change. It could go very well, or very badly, and right now it is mostly going our way.
At least we are in the game. The comments indicate that people are finding places to ride good trails, and adding 4-6″ to the base that we have now would really turn things nice. Most places have good coverage and base, and a dose of snow would help heal up sunny and icy spots, especially if there were a little rain to help it bond to the base.
We won’t be losing a lot of base this week. The sun is harsh, but we are expecting a high of 20 today and a low of -5 tonight. Wednesday brings a high of about 30. Thursday we are looking at upper 30 as moist southern air comes our way, but it will be mostly cloudy and raining and snowing. Thursday night when the bulk of the storm is expected, the forecast is for mid-20s. That sounds good..
Friday is expected to be in the mid-30s, Saturday in the upper 30s, and Sunday the forecast is for upper 40s, but I’d probably add a few degrees, like 5-10. That might be the fat lady tuning up.
I am not sure how this story ends yet, but right now I remain optimistic that it will end with a blanket of snow just in time for the weekend.
Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!