Tuesday November 29th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

It is a nice sunny day outside today, but the north wind gusting from 10-20mph makes the 35 degrees feel a lot colder.  That brings my first use of the words Wind Chill, which is about 24º at the moment.

We are going to be seeing some colder weather in the next week or so. I think that tomorrow’s high of 35-40 will be about the warmest day. The rest are forecast to be in the low to mid 30s, and next Monday the high on the NWS forecast is only for the mid-20s.

That is a great thing for freezing up the ground and the lakes in preparation for winter snow. With low temperaturs in the 20-25º range we should see significant progress freezing lakes in the next week.

There are no big storms showing up for us yet in the models. There are a couple that go off to the southeast, and a couple that go north of us, but nothing for a big hit for our region.

The cold weather and the northwest winds should bring some lake effect snow in the UP. The noon TV weather guy showed about 3″ around Hurley and about a tenth of an inch here as a small disturbance moves through to our north mid-week and helps the lake effect snow along.

The GFS forecast model is showing a sustained push of colder air over the next couple of weeks. It should start later this week and deepen over the first week of December. On one model run yesterday they had the cold air all of the way to the deep south, with the -10C 850 temperature line reaching northern Alabama and Mississippi. It takes about -4C to make it cold enough to snow instead of rain. That is a pretty good push of cold air.

The model is showing most of our weather coming from a northwest flow. Not only will that keep us in some colder weather, it will push the bigger storms from the south to the east of us. We will see some light snows out of minor disturbances, but there are no big storms obvious for us.

For the short term I am ok with that. It is good to have a foot frozen in the ground and on the lakes before the first big snow comes.

I have been making good progress on my outside work in the last week. I spent most of the day outside yesterday and tackled a lot of stuff. The driveway got cleared  for snowplowing and the plow went onto the truck and got tested along with about a dozen other similar tasks. I am almost done with firewood with just a little left to cut up and a decent sized pile to split.

All of that is leading up to getting out into the shop. Getting that switched over from summer projects to snowmobiles will take some work before I even pull a sled in. A lot of that is scheduled to be tackled next week, but I am itching to get a head start.

That is about it for today. Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!