Tuesday November 8th, 2011-Storm Watch

Storm Watch


The latest on the storm from the 5pm TV weather guys, the NWS, and the HPC is for the more easterly path for the storm. We are now under a winter storm warning, and our current forecast is for 6″ here and maybe a little more north and west.

With 6″ of heavy snow and 15-25+mph winds, travel might get interesting tomorrow afternoon. They also mention the possibility of heavy snow and wind taking down some tree branches.

Stay tuned on this one, the forecast could easily change again. Right now it looks impressive in the models and warnings, but the snow part of the storm is still in Kansas.





Greetings and welcome!

I am watching the forecasts change unfold right before my eyes here. When I checked a few hours ago the NWS had the snow in north central WI with Eagle River & Rhinelander seeing 2 tonight, and 7 tomorrow. The snow tapered off going east, with Crandon looking for 1 tonight and 5 tomorrow. Land O Lakes looked to be about ground zero with 1 tonight, 7 tomorrow, and 1 Wednesday night.

So far we are not expecting any snow accumulation this far east.

But wait..

The latest hot off of the computer NCEP NAM model is showing the whole system moving about 100-150 miles farther east, and along with it, the snow and precip bands. That could put us into the snow band as described above. As currently shown, we could get spanked pretty good.

The rain/snow line is at about the second isobar out from the west side of the center of the low. This frame alone could be 6″ + and there are others like it before and after.

Apparently the more eastward path idea is catching on. The NWS issued a winter storm warning for Dickenson County Michigan, up by Iron Mountain. In that warning they speak of 8+ inches of wet heavy snow and 40-50mph winds by Lake Superior tomorrow afternoon blowing it around as it falls. If they are looking at the same NAM model that I am, I understand their thinking.

The possibility exists that we could get a good dose of snow and wind out of the storm. The model changed and could change back to rain too. There are no solid answers yet, but the shift east in the models is big news.