Wednesday 2-22-2023

9am-

Greetings and welcome!

The first small wave of the storm is almost done with us. My 8am driveway total is 2″ overnight and a total of 3″ down. It is an extremely fine snow. Not to worry, everything is still right on track for a major snowstorm.. and maybe more..

If you recall.. about a week ago I was talking about double barrel low pressure systems. It isn’t an official term or anything, but a lot of forecasters recognize the pattern and use that term. That is what we have going on today and tomorrow.

The overnight snow was just sort of a leading tendril of the storm. The first of the storms will hit here about 5 or 6pm tonight. Right on it’s heels comes the second low pressure area very early tomorrow morning. Between the two storms and our couple of inches down we will likely still see 12-14″ or so of snow.

All indications are that not only will we see a lot of snow, but there will be 30-40mph wind gusts blowing it around. That should make travel very challenging tonight and tomorrow morning.

Am I still skeptical? Not so much anymore. The models are all in really good agreement, and even the short term high resolution models like the HRRR and RAP are on board. It is about as close to a sure thing as it gets, but I can’t roll in it yet..

Yesterday I was talking about a Monday storm that looked like it could be the strongest of the season, and it looked a lot like heavy rain. I mentioned how the forecast models can change dramatically after a big storm, so don’t get married to the idea.

Well.. Here we are again with the BUY IT NOW button on the forecast models. If I could lock in this morning’s ECMWF model I’d be clicking that BUY IT NOW button like I was rabid or something.┬áIt isn’t showing it as rain anymore, but as very heavy snow very close to the rain/snow line, so it would be WET heavy snow and a lot of it.

The 976MB central pressure is pretty impressive. That is a very powerful storm.

For now it is just a pleasant cartoon, but I like what it says. I hated yesterday’s version with 2″ of rain and love today’s version that shows a foot plus of snow. BUY BUY BUY!

For now we wait. The overnight snow is moving out and the next wave is coming at about dinnertime tonight.

Have a good Wednesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB