2:30pm-

Everything is right on track. The noon NAM model just finished loading enough to see the storm, and everything looks good. I’d rather see the 12-15 band down by Appleton move 100 miles north, but 8-12 of wet heavy snow will be fine. No need to be greedy about it.

The RAP Rapid Refresh model is starting to show the storm in our area. The RAP updates hourly and only goes out 1 8 hours. It isn’t quite showing the heart of the storm over us yet, but it is looking good for now.

The storm isn’t a done deal yet, but it sure does look good. The leading edge of it is already bringing snow here and there in the southern half of WI. It also looks like it is lifting north a little faster than expected, yee ha.

I might even get my thundersnow, the NWS forecast says a few rumbles are possible.

So far, so good.

12:15pm- They have upgraded Forest, Florence, and Langlade Counties to Winter Storm Warnings.

1130am-

Greetings and welcome!

We are now under a Winter storm WARNING for Marinette and Oconto Counties. The NWS is warning about 7-10″ of snow and 30-35mph winds.

The forecast models from the GFS, NAM and HPC are all pretty much on board with us getting a good snow. The GFS and NAM are solid about us being in the 9-12 area, the HPC QPFis only slightly less at 6-9.

Much of the southern half of the state is under a BLIZZARD WARNING. They are warning about..

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…12 TO 17 INCHES. THUNDERSNOW WITH RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR.

* WINDS…NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY…WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

Ok, that will be a mess. Snow at 2-3″ per hour is almost impossible to see in, drive it on 30-45mph winds and forget it, even on a snowmobile.

What do you want for Christmas Ray? Thundersnow. (That would be the luxury box seats) I’ve only seen it a few times. One storm back in 81 it really went at it, and what a storm. I recall finding my Dad’s Ranchero only because we saw the CB antenna sticking up out of the snow. Thundersnow would be good.

Anyway, here are some screen captures of the warning areas. The blue to our northwest is a winter weather advisory looking for 4-6 and 25-30mph winds. The pink area that we are in is the winter storm warning area, and the orange is a blizzard warning.

Here are the warning areas for NE WI..

ScreenHunter_01 Dec. 19 10.10

Here is the magnitude of the storm warnings on a larger scale. That is a LOT of pink and orange!

ScreenHunter_01 Dec. 19 10.11

Here are the blizzard warning areas downstate in orange..

ScreenHunter_02 Dec. 19 10.10

I have some IL friends that were talking about coming up Thursday morning to be here for the storm. You might want to make that Wednesday night very shortly after work.. We are expecting to see snow starting around or a little after midnight. Travel Thursday will be next to impossible.

I am still working on some of the storm preparations. I am expecting to be without power for a couple of days between the packing type snow and the high winds.  At that point I am getting laundry done, and will have a fresh shower when the snow starts. I already have drinking water freezing in the freezer. That will cool the fridge as ice, and then be drinkable. There is a big jug of water drawn already for flushing.

I still need to batten down the tarp on a woodpile against the high winds, and tie down the tarps on the wood shed. I got a lot of gas the other day, but will top off the truck and get another can for the generator. I might pick up some hot dogs or other food that cooks easy on the wood burner.

The snow is expected to be fairly heavy packing snow according to the Green Bay weather this morning. Six to nine, 7-10, 9-12, whatever, it is should be good snow for the trails, not super-fluffy.

One thing that I noticed on the latest model run is that they don’t have the storm getting quite as intense. At one point it was shown as having a central pressure of 980mb or 984mb. The 980 mark is the minimum criteria for a cat 1 hurricane. Now they are up to about a 996, a good bit weaker, but nothing to sneeze at. That’s ok, we really don’t need 50-70mph winds.

I haven’t missed a model run update in a couple of days, and they have been pretty solid in their portrayal of the storm. All signs are that we are in for a good one.

I will be back after dark with the latest update. Have a good Wednesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB