Wednesday December 28th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

We have some weather to talk about today, and some of it even mentions our favorite word.

Yesterday and today brought much colder weather than the past week or two have. It is 17 degrees as of 11:30am, a couple of days ago at the same time it was 37. Yesterday wasn’t quite as cold, but a sharp wind made it feel that way.

We have some snow on tap for tonight. The forecasts vary but the bottom line looks like an inch or two between tonight and tomorrow.

There was a really small system right on the heels of this on that could bring light snow again Friday. Again the forecasts and models vary, some have it staying downstate, some have us getting a taste.

Likewise there is a storm for over the weekend. The GFS is really excited about it, showing it deepening into a very strong low pressure area with a central pressure as low as 980mb as it exits the area.  The NAM and HPC aren’t quite as excitable, and they show a storm, but of much smaller magnitude and strength.

I don’t know quite what to think. I tend to want to go with the smaller outlook on this one. The GFS can suffer what is called convective feedback, where is shows storms much stronger than they really should be.  Sometimes it plays out that way too. At the moment I will go with the majority and milder version of the storm, but keep it on watch for future model runs.

If the storm came through as seen in the GFS version it would exit with a lot of strong winds and a good cold blast. None of the versions show really heavy snow, these are storms that are not tapped into the Gulf of Mexico for a moisture source. At that point we are in the 6″ or less range for snow, and probably half of that or less. The NWS isn’t giving it much credit at all as far as precip with only a 20% chance Saturday and Saturday night.

All that we can do is watch and hope.

With so much up in the air with the model guidance I don’t think that it is a good idea to get set in an idea of the weekend forecast. Right now the NWS has us for mid-30 both days. That could change a lot.

I am off to dive into another day in the great soon to be white north. Have a good Wednesday and thank you for visiting!