Wednesday Feb 22, 2012

Greetings and welcome!

The storm for Thursday is bringing some disagreement among the models. The GFS has it blowing well to the south and leaving us with a dusting or light snow at best. The NAM model that most forecasters are running with is showing it turn into a decent snow storm south of about Green Bay. South of Lake Winnebago there are winter storm watches out. In that scenario theoreticaly we could see an inch or two.

The Sunday-Monday storm is still showing up. The past few model runs have been showing the low tracking about from the Twin Cities to Iron Mountain. Normally that path would mean rain, but it is showing upper level temperatures that would support snow. Also noteworthy, the GFS is showing that storm not having the big moisture support from the Gulf of Mexico, which would limit totals a little. If it holds together we could see a 4+” storm, but 10+ is probably out.

There is a third storm showing up about two days later. This is a big one with GOM moisture and the whole 27 feet. It is also showing up as an inch plus of rain with the rain snow line well north of Lake Superior.

I was wrong about the snow accumulations yesterday. We ended up with about an inch of snow. I was thrown off because it only accumulated where there was already snow. Areas to the NW saw a little more snow than we did.