Wednesday January 11, 2012

Winter Storm Watch

Greetings and welcome!

The NWS has us under a winter storm watch this morning, with windy conditions and a possible 6-8″ of snow. They and the HPC are on board with the school of thought that has the storm stalling out for a little while and giving us a nice blanket of snow.

The GFS and NAM are not quite as slow to move the storm out, and what I am seeing there at the moment would bring us about 3-6″.

This is also a storm that will be centered to our east over lower Michigan (The lower UP). Between the location and lake effect enhancement, it is likely that the areas to the east rather than to the northwest will see more snow. That is different.

No matter if we are in the 3-6 or 6-8 outcome, we are expecting a lot of wind with the storm. That will bring some rough travel conditions as the snow blows around. It will also bring lake effect snow to the UP and the usual areas of WI.

The NWS is looking for an inch by morning, another 3-4 Thursday, and the balance of the 6-8 Thursday night.

I am still not sold that the storm will camp over MI as long as they think that it will, so I am kind of skeptical on the higher end totals. I am comfortable with the 3-6, and hoping for 6-9.

Check out Slug’s comment from yesterday. He brought back condition reports from Ashland all of the way back, and apparently the big warm spell wasn’t very kind to the northwoods.

Now comes the worst part, waiting for the storm, and hoping that forecast only changes to increase snow totals.

Have a good Wednesday and thank you for visiting!