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Feb 28

Tuesday February 28th, 2012 10:30pm

10:30pm

There is probably about an inch to an inch and a half down from the daytime snow and about that much more since sunset. It is snowing at a decent clip, but it is hardly a blizzard without much wind.

This is a really big storm that is well fed with moisture, and it is expected to intensify as the low pressure area gets closer. Central WI could see thunderstorms, and areas to the south where the storm is being fed ( Like MO, AR, KS, OK) are seeing severe thunderstorm and tornado watches.

The 10pm news from Green Bay TV 26 had a general 6-12 predicted north of Green Bay. The weather buddy pointed pretty much right at this area and said that northern Oconto and central Marinette Co could see as much as 16″. It ain’t right to tease us like that.

Anyway, we are just getting started. The snow should intensify and the wind is expected to pick up as the actual storm gets closer. The 9pm surface analysis showed two low pressure areas with one in central Nebraska and one in Colorado. They are not moving very fast, so the storm might be going on for a while before it clears out to our east.

If we do get spanked with snow, and it looks good, you will want to jump at the chance to ride this weekend. The GFS is showing a couple of big warm ups in the next two weeks, starting with what could be some 50s next week.

The Friday storm continues to look like a strong one, but it is shown just clipping the eastern 1/3 of WI. A storm path a hundred miles farther east would leave us watching from the cheap seats, and 100 miles west would give us another 6″+ storm.

RJB

 

4:30pm

Greetings and welcome!

It looks like the storm is still on for tonight and tomorrow. The local 4pm news has us, Lakewood, Pembine,  Marinette to Antigo for over a foot.

So far the light snow today added up to probably an inch or two. The news said that Rhinelander had about 5″ already. This is just the leading edge and light stuff out in font of the storm.

I still am worried about the close rain snow line. It can swing either way, with us just to the north of it getting pounded by wet heavy snow, or with rain limiting totals.

Anyway, here is a link to the Green Bay TV Ch 2.1 weather forecast from the 4pm news. Note the 13.6″ forecast for Lakewood. Can I get a Yeee Ha?

RJB

 

 

12:15

Greetings and welcome!

We have seen light snow for most of the morning. It doesn’t seem to be adding up to much (~1/2″), but it is making the world a little whiter.

The real storm is still out in Colorado, and is still expected to hit us tonight. The forecasts have varied a little but not much. On the high end the TV weather guy this morning was looking for 8-14 north of Hwy 64, most are looking for about 6-12.

Again  I want to mention my concern about the rain/snow line. My guidance is showing it a little too close for comfort. So far most forecasts hold it south of 64 except for briefly tomorrow as the low gets close. It is encouraging that we were expecting a high of 36-38 today and as of noon it is only 30.

I am still moving forward with storm prep, and will be mounting the plow on the truck later, but the forecast will be easier to believe when I can hold the snow in my hand.

The Friday storm is still bringing a variety of scenarios in my guidance. The GFS and HPC have it hitting us, and as a very strong storm. The North American Model (NAM)  is taking it east and south of us.

One measure of storm strength is central pressure. The lower it is, the stronger the storm. In the GFS version the Friday storm hits us in the 976 to 980 mb range. That is pretty strong.

It goes on to strengthen to a central pressure of 968 as it moves over the Soo and as low as 964 as it goes into eastern Canada. According to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale, a Cat 2 hurricane has a central pressure in the 979-965 range. That would suggest that if the models are right it will be a strong storm.

For now it is watch & wait.

RJB

 

 

 

 

5:25am

Greetings and welcome!

The winter storm watch is over.. This came out 5 minutes ago..

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
 500 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 
...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE PLAINS TODAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE MARSHFIELD TO SHAWANO TO OCONTO.

WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT COULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO TURN TO A WINTRY MIX OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WIZ012-013-021-073-074-281900-
/O.UPG.KGRB.WS.A.0002.120229T0000Z-120301T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGRB.WS.W.0001.120229T0300Z-120301T0000Z/
FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
SOUTHERN OCONTO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CRIVITZ
500 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME
  HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

* TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. SOME
  SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING TONIGHT
  AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION...OR WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS ENDED.
THE LATEST WISCONSIN ROAD CONDITIONS CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING
511.

=================================================================

And here is the current Athelstane forecast..

Today...Cloudy. A chance of light snow in the late morning and afternoon.
 Highs 32 to 36. Light and variable wind becoming southeast at 5 to 10 mph
 in the afternoon. Chance of snow 30 percent. 

Tonight...Light snow likely in the evening...
then snow after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight.
 3 to 6 inches of accumulation expected. Lows around 28. East wind 10 to 20 mph.
 Chance of snow near 100 percent. 

Wednesday...Snow and a chance of sleet in the morning...
then light snow in the afternoon. 4 to 5 inches of accumulation expected...
bringing the total accumulation to 7 to 11 inches.
 Nearly steady temperatures around 30. East wind 10 to 20 mph.
Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy. Light snow likely in the evening...
 Then a chance of light snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 20s.
 North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

===================================================

All of my latest guidance has the storm coming our way and a good chance of meaningful snow, but I am still concerned about the rain/snow line.

The Intellicast radar already has snow spreading into the area, but as of 5:15 is isn’t snowing.

For now storm preparations will move forward in about 90 minutes when the sun comes up. I will update as is needed, but the real action isn’t expected to start until late today or tonight.

Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Glen asked me to post the water skipping video again. Here it is..

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